Is the weakening of the Turkish lira merely a trailer for something else?

Turkish lira price analysis forecast 

Last February I posted an update on The Turkish lira who’s traded almost 3 months between 3.85+_ to 3.73+_ boundary price after last year we saw in November new record and Turkish lira almost touch 4 against the dollar, this week Turkish lira break up above 3.90 for the first time since then,Turkish lira  also hit by weakness in emerging markets and concerns from military conflict with Syria, also from economic problems such as widening current account deficit and high inflation - The 10-year benchmark bond yield rose to 12.80 .are we going to see new records ?

Technical analysis review

As I mention as long as Turkish lira will stay above those levels, it could send the usd try to 3.89-3.92 price levels

Long-term trend forecast moved is still up as long as 3.34 will hold!

Break below 3.34-6 on weekly basis will send the Turkish to 3.24-6 while break above3.91 will lead the usd/try to cope with 4.11+

Pay attention to 3.73 price level! – closed below this level will send the Turkish lira to cope with 3.59-3.62+_ price area – 

A weekly close above 3.9480+- will confirm for more up moves 

turkish lira analysis

history Reviews covered the Turkish lira among last years for the last trend was written 

My assumption was that we are going to see the Turkish lira going to 4.12  but I noticed some obstacles whom may not give the Turkish the way up to those levels

I’m covering the try for many years, I mention not one that we are going to see the Turkish going over 4 to 4.11-4.20 ,today the USD/try reached for now a new low – check the charts – if I'm seeing the right picture so we are in process of creating new lows above 4, but the question if it will stop there ?

Looking on the charts showing us 2 times in history that it happens so I'm guessing this time it will be the same behavior, but the question is if there will be any innervation from turkey government on those numbers???

Technical analysis and similar pattern appears in 2002 – look the chart, if this is the same scenario, so we need to expect to see the Turkish lira going below 3.52 price, but it will happen only if Turkish lira won’t go up above 4.10, if this is the case , so we need to be ready for Trading a shuffle strip for a period of a long time, Which means that the programming of a trading band between the ranges of 3.4 to 4 for a long period, similar to the scenario in 2002-2008

My assumption now is that we are witnessing the same move as 2002-2003 – that’s mean that usd try going to see again lower prices such as 3.34 and even lower

turkish lira forecast

This review does not including any document and/or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice