Has the long-term correlation between oil prices and the Canadian dollar ended?
USD CAD PRICE TRADE IDEA
Canadian dollar made some recover moves due Dollar Index broke above the key 92.00 level, the biggest spike since Dec 2016 - to its highest level since mid-January. With net speculative positioning at extreme shortsSome of the pairs in the forex market are facing critical junction points for a further move against the dollar in the world.
ill will focus this time on USD CAD the big picture of the trend in the foreign exchange market,
An idea for Trade - following tensions in the Middle East
And also due to the high non-correlations between oil prices and the Canadian dollar:
Short Canadian Dollar
Long Crude Oil
The correlation between the prices of oil and the Canadian price will be narrowed
Perhaps this is the time to start re-normalization between the prices of oil and the Canadian dollar
All the time the oil traded in areas above $ 50 (this was a long period - the Canadian is trading in the area 1.20-1.23 at its maximum and now it is somewhere in the 1.28 area)
Even the spread between the Brent and crude is high (average $ 3 now $ 6)
There are a few distortions and they will close in my opinion
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| USD CAD analysis |
USD/CAD Drops to 1.2544 from 1.3124 high in the last march and recovers back to 1.2911 price area yesterday
break 1.2630-1.2700 will confirm near-term reversal on the downside and send USD CAD retracement to 1.2560 price area.
Also, current development suggests rejection by 1.3124 level And deeper decline could be seen back to 1.2130 and below eventually put back into focus with medium-term bearishness revived, You can also see the bearish pattern in the monthly chart
Candlesticks point to continued bearish momentum in a bearish pair –pay attention to 1.2790
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| USD CAD TREND |
On the upside, break of 1.2850-1.2930 is needed to confirm completion of the decline. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bearish in case of recovery.
Canadian Dollar trading risk rewards face junction at 1.20 and 1.30 price area stay in focus
This review does not including any document and/or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy/sell securities and/or other advice
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