Is natural gas prıce facing ın front a strong move

Is natural gas prıce facing ın front a strong move

Natural gas is a flammable gas that is used for
Natural gas is a major source of power generation gas turbines and steam turbines
Many used for domestic purposes, heating / cooling and heating
Is a major feedstock for the chemical industry
Cleaner and cheaper alternative to other transport fuels such as petrol and diesel
Fertilizers - Natural gas is a major feedstock for the production of ammonia
More and more we see the transfer of power plants powered by coal or oil to liquefied gas
the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) projects that overall gas consumption will continue to increase, under existing policy, at least until 2040

NATURAL GAS

Few indicator on natural gas market :

Natural Gas Rig Count

On August 19, 2016, Baker Hughes reported that the US natural gas rig count was flat at 83 rigs from August 12–19, 2016. Rigs were down by 60.7%

The US natural gas rig count peaked at 1,606 rigs on September 12, 2008. In contrast, it hit a low of 81 rigs in the week ending August 5, 2016. The gas rig count is down by 94.9% from its peak level

NATURAL GAS RIG COUNT

“The US Energy Information Agency’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook reports that energy-related CO2 emissions from natural gas are expected to be 10% higher than coal emissions for 2016.”

NATURAL GAS  OUTLOOK

Seasonal weather conditions would have a short-term impact on natural gas prices due to the change in the demand for natural gas

US natural gas price forecast   

Argent Energy Advisors estimates that US natural gas prices may not exceed $2.70 per MMBtu in September 2016. They also might not exceed $2.80 per MMBtu from September to October 2016. Prices are expected to trade below $3.27 per MMBtu for the winter from November 2016 to March 2017. The Price Futures Group estimates that $3 per MMBtu might be the upper limit for US natural gas prices in 2016

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that US natural gas prices will average $2.41 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) in 2016 and $2.95 per MMBtu in 

NATURAL GAS FORECAST

Now let’s move to the technical side:

Prices for natural gas have risen for five consecutive trading days, gaining over 10% in just a week

Natural gas's strong rally last week should indicate that consolidation pattern from 2.998 has completed at 2.523 already. Further rise is expected this week for 3.10 first. Break will extend the larger rally to the next level 4,00. On the downside, below 2.71 minor support will extend the consolidation pattern from 2.998 with another fall

US natural gas inventories are 11.7% more than their five-year average. High natural gas inventories could pressure US natural gas prices. For more on US natural gas prices, read Part 2 of this series. Lower natural gas prices have a negative impact on oil and gas producers.

From cot data we can see also some interesting stuff: there is similar pattern to late 2013 ,when in this period natural gas rose from 3.94 to 5.72 $ on the next move ,will it be same now ….

NATURAL GAS COT 

There is also an interesting pattern on the natural gas : flag pattern - f this is to be undertaken so we should expect to see natural gas go to 4$ +_ area ,but first he have strong resistance in 3.10 $ area

NATURAL GAS ANALYSIS

This review does not including any document and / or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy / sell securities and / or other advice